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You are doing the right thing calculating out the best deal for you. The only thing to consider is the up front costs with the upgrade vs. no up front costs on the new payment plans.
In your example, if your new phone's subsidized upgrade price is $199 and the upgrade fee is $40, you are really adding $10 per month to you overall cost. So to compare better, your $79.99/month current plan would be equal to $89.99/month on the new plans for the same phone.
