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Well I dont think there is a way to know either until something official is released. However, I have read quite a few things about it, which should be understood are just rumors.
Is there a reason it might not be available on a family plan? I havent heard of anything like that for a smart phone for quite a long time so in my opinion, you should be able to get it on your family plan. It would affect to many people negatively to do something like that these days
From what I have read, it wont be any more than $200 with a two year plan. Verizon has been bringing in all of their top smart phones (Droid and Omnia are most recent) at $199 with two year plan. I think it is safe to say the Nexus One will follow suit.
